Lumber prices have skyrocketed more than 180% since last spring, and this price spike has caused the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $24,386 since April 17, 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) standard estimates of lumber used to build the average home. Similarly, the market value of the average new multifamily home has increased by $8,998 over the same period due to the surge in lumber prices.
The latest Random Lengths prices as of mid-February show the price of framing lumber topped $975 per thousand board feet — a 180% increase since last April when the price was roughly $350 per thousand board feet.
NAHB calculated these average home price increases based on the softwood lumber that goes into the average new home, as captured in the Builder Practices Survey conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs. Included is any softwood used in structural framing (including beams, joists, headers, rafters and trusses), sheathing, flooring and underlayment, interior wall and ceiling finishing, cabinets, doors, windows, roofing, siding, soffit and fascia, and exterior features such as garages, porches, decks, railing, fences and landscape walls.
The softwood products considered include lumber of various dimensions (including any that may be appearance grade or pressure treated for outdoor use), plywood, OSB, particleboard, fiberboard, shakes and shingles — in short, any of the products sold by U.S. sawmills and tracked on a weekly basis by Random Lengths.
Our Ginger Spicewood brings out oak’s zesty design flavor further enhanced by Authentic texture, the same structure we use with Barnwood and Smokewood.
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts hit1.55 million annualized units in November, up 2.8% from the year before. Meanwhile, sales of newly built, single-family homes in November stood at 841,000 on an annualized rate, 20.8% higher than November 2019.
Economists for a wide variety of organizations see even better days to come for the housing industry in 2021. Here are highlights of some of those rosy forecasts.
National Association of Home Builders: Home builder confidence enters 2021 at near record highs. New home sales growth will likely slow but will remain strong due to a “shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates.” Home builders will continue to face higher costs for materials and contend with an ongoing labor skills shortage. “Remodeling demand should remain strong and expand further.”
Realtor.com: “We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.” Single-family starts are seen increasing 9%.
Redfin: “The housing market will remain strong through 2021 as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven recession.” Among Redfin’s 2021 predictions:
Mortgage rates will rise slowly but remain historically low at 3%;
There will be more home sales than in any year since 2006, but price growth will slow.
More new homes will be built next year than in any year since 2006… Building permits were up 21% from September to November compared to the same time the year before year.
The number of Americans relocating will be the highest it has been in 16 years. In 2021, the number of Americans moving across county lines will surpass 14.5 million, as everyone settles into their post-pandemic ways of living. That will be more than a 25% increase in out-of-town movers from 2018 when 11.4 million Americans moved across county lines.
Zillow: “(We) expect a perfect storm of market conditions to create the hottest spring shopping season in recent memory, with sales happening quickly and often above list price. It’s likely COVID-19 vaccine distribution will be well underway in the U.S. by the spring, and local economies and schools should be in the process of opening back up. Many will also have more certainty about whether their jobs will be performed remotely in the long term, adding buyers to the market who had been waiting for that to be settled. Add in expectations for mortgage rates to rise later in the year, and we could see a buyer frenzy as they look to lock in rates as low as possible.
“2020 has been a remarkably strong year for the housing market, with sales on pace to grow 6% from 2019 despite essentially pressing ‘pause’ for a few weeks in the heart of the spring shopping season. We expect that mark will be shattered next year, forecasting 21.9% annual growth for a total of 6.9 million homes sold. That would be the biggest annual sales growth since 1983.”
In this issue of On the Surface, we say hello to 2021; shine a spotlight on Ginger Spicewood and take sneak a peek at what economists expect will be a very good year for the U.S. housing industry.
Gearing Up for 2021
Dear Colleagues,
2020 was a year that none of us will ever forget. We watched in disbelief as a year that began with great optimism was hijacked by a global pandemic that dramatically altered the way we work and live.
While we are happy to have 2020 in the rearview mirror, we are also grateful to all of you who supported Synergy during the most extraordinary of times. It wasn’t always easy, but we not only survived the worst that the pandemic could throw at us, we’ve emerged stronger than ever. We’re excited to watch the New Year unfold and see what new opportunities avail themselves.
We greatly look forward to continuing to serve you as the most-trusted source of 3D Laminates, 2D Laminates and Foils.
In this issue of On the Surface, we say hello to 2021; shine a spotlight on Ginger Spicewood and take sneak a peek at what economists expect will be a very good year for the U.S. housing industry.
Gearing Up for 2021
Dear Colleagues,
2020 was a year that none of us will ever forget. We watched in disbelief as a year that began with great optimism was hijacked by a global pandemic that dramatically altered the way we work and live.
While we are happy to have 2020 in the rearview mirror, we are also grateful to all of you who supported Synergy during the most extraordinary of times. It wasn’t always easy, but we not only survived the worst that the pandemic could throw at us, we’ve emerged stronger than ever. We’re excited to watch the New Year unfold and see what new opportunities avail themselves.
We greatly look forward to continuing to serve you as the most-trusted source of 3D Laminates, 2D Laminates and Foils.
Thank you and good luck!
Your friends at Synergy Thermal Foils
Product Spotlight: Ginger Spicewood
Our Ginger Spicewood brings out oak’s zesty design flavor further enhanced by Authentic texture, the same structure we use with Barnwood and Smokewood.
Request a sample. (Be sure to include your name, company name, address and phone number.)
Bullish on Housing
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts hit1.55 million annualized units in November, up 2.8% from the year before. Meanwhile, sales of newly built, single-family homes in November stood at 841,000 on an annualized rate, 20.8% higher than November 2019.
Economists for a wide variety of organizations see even better days to come for the housing industry in 2021. Here are highlights of some of those rosy forecasts.
National Association of Home Builders: Home builder confidence enters 2021 at near record highs. New home sales growth will likely slow but will remain strong due to a “shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates.” Home builders will continue to face higher costs for materials and contend with an ongoing labor skills shortage. “Remodeling demand should remain strong and expand further.”
Realtor.com: “We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.” Single-family starts are seen increasing 9%.
Redfin: “The housing market will remain strong through 2021 as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven recession.” Among Redfin’s 2021 predictions:
Mortgage rates will rise slowly but remain historically low at 3%;
There will be more home sales than in any year since 2006, but price growth will slow.
More new homes will be built next year than in any year since 2006… Building permits were up 21% from September to November compared to the same time the year before year.
The number of Americans relocating will be the highest it has been in 16 years. In 2021, the number of Americans moving across county lines will surpass 14.5 million, as everyone settles into their post-pandemic ways of living. That will be more than a 25% increase in out-of-town movers from 2018 when 11.4 million Americans moved across county lines.
Zillow: “(We) expect a perfect storm of market conditions to create the hottest spring shopping season in recent memory, with sales happening quickly and often above list price. It’s likely COVID-19 vaccine distribution will be well underway in the U.S. by the spring, and local economies and schools should be in the process of opening back up. Many will also have more certainty about whether their jobs will be performed remotely in the long term, adding buyers to the market who had been waiting for that to be settled. Add in expectations for mortgage rates to rise later in the year, and we could see a buyer frenzy as they look to lock in rates as low as possible.
“2020 has been a remarkably strong year for the housing market, with sales on pace to grow 6% from 2019 despite essentially pressing ‘pause’ for a few weeks in the heart of the spring shopping season. We expect that mark will be shattered next year, forecasting 21.9% annual growth for a total of 6.9 million homes sold. That would be the biggest annual sales growth since 1983.”
As today’s world moves towards more ecofriendly options thermofoil components are gaining strides in the woodworking industry. The growing popularity of 3DL has encouraged a lavish blend of nature and design that mimic our surroundings. With STF’s latest 3D laminate addition, the Skye truly is the limit.
Skye is just one in the many newest designs that are capturing todays modern trends utilizing our landscapes as inspiration. The white brushed elm design combined with the deep texture emulates nature in the most spectacular fashion. A TFL match can be found with Uniboard (H54).
Home flipping is on the rise, nearly back to the same level it was around the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. However, this time around it does not cause concern for many economists as the flips are less risky.
According to a recent report from Core Logic Inc, that has been tracking house flipping data since 2002, stated that the flipping* rate has increased on a year over year basis for 12 consecutive quarters. 2018 fourth quarter flipping rate was at 10.9% of home sales, compared to first quarter of 2006 which was at 11.3%.
The biggest markets for house flipping falls mostly along the sun belt with Birmingham, AL at 16.5% followed by Memphis, TN (16.22%), Tampa, FL (15.1%), and Las Vegas, NV (15%). Other markets with high average rates are New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
At the low end of the home flipping rates areas such as Austin, TX (4.3%), Bridgeport, CT (4.4%), Hartford, CT (5.1%), and New Haven, CT (5.3%) along with other parts of Texas, Massachusetts, Illinois and Wisconsin.
This time around house flipping is more based on adding value and speculating on prices. Adding value to older homes is has been key to ensure there is no market volatilely. This allows entry level homes back to the market without large costs for first time home buyers (entry level homes are desperately needed on the market due to a lack of supply). One of the key takeaways from the housing bust was that a large part of the flipping industry was based on speculation on future home prices.
*House flipping rate is determined as a percentage of total home sales that have been owned for less than two years.
U.S. job openings fell in February to the lowest level in nearly a year. Seasonally adjusted, there was 7.09 million unfilled jobs in February, down by more than 500,000 from January.
While job openings may have fallen, unemployment rates have stayed at very low levels, for both February and March, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%.
What’s hot in the world of kitchen trends? According to Houzz’s annual study of kitchen trends grey has been on a constant rise in recent years. Grey cabinets have had a major break through, with 1 in every 10 homeowners choosing grey over the more traditional white in cabinets. Paired with contrasting colors or bright accent pieces such as brass hardware or a bright color paint, grey is becoming a staple in many homes.
With a shift in focus from white to grey, STF has introduced yet another grey in our solid collection. Opti Grey is a mid range grey that is bound to have endless applications and never go out of style. Complimentary TFL products can be found with Arauco, Roseburg, Tafisa, Funder, Uniboard, Stevens Indsutries, KML, and American Laminates. Matching HPL can be found with Formica and Pionite.
The U.S. labor market has reached a new record with the longest streak of job additions to the market. January marked the 100th month of consecutive job growth within the U.S according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 304,000 in January. Employment grew in several industries including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care and transportation and warehousing.
Unemployment ticked up to 4.0% but that is attributed to the partial government shutdown that lasted 35 days. Despite uncertainties that surrounded the partial shutdown, it did not slow down the private sector hiring.
The latest Random Lengths prices as of mid-February show the price of framing lumber topped $975 per thousand board feet — a 180% increase since last April when the price was roughly $350 per thousand board feet.
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
