With nine months still to go in 2021, the Home Buying Institute (HBI) takes a “best guess” at what might be in store for the 2022 real estate market based on its analysis of current trends. They include:
Higher mortgage rates dampen home buying demand: Last year (2020) was a big one for the nation’s real estate market. Home buyer demand surged, despite a global pandemic and economic slowdown. Record-low mortgage rates contributed to this, along with a newfound appreciation for homeownership.
While demand remains strong today, HBI expects to see less demand among home buyers in 2022 primarily because of expected high mortgage rates. HBI forecasts a 30-year fixed loan rate to climb to 3.6% by the end of this year, compared to the current average rate of about 3.0%. HBI’s forecast is corroborated by one recently issued by the Mortgage Bankers Association that home lending rates will increase. Higher interest rates would have a dampening effect on home-buyer demand.
Rising home prices: In spite of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. home prices steadily increased during 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021. According to data compiled by Zillow, the median home value rose about 10% between March 2020 and March 2021. Based on current conditions, HBI predicts home values to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace.
Home inventory crunch: According to a recent housing market report by Realtor.com, inventory levels continue to drop across much of the U.S.; the number of homes for sale in March 2021 declined by 51%. New home construction could bring add to the available housing stock in some markets. Nevertheless, HBI assumes that supply constraints will continue to be a dominant issue for the U.S. real estate market well into 2022.
Renting vs. buying: A number of U.S. housing markets already place renting over buying for cost-conscious consumers due to home-price appreciation. HBI says this trend could continue into 2022, especially if home values continue to climb steadily as expected.
Synergy recently shared perspectives on the booming recreational vehicle market with Surface & Panel magazine. The article, published in S&P’s Q1 2021 edition focused on how the pandemic has fueled increased RV sales and examined key design trends.
Among the quotes and information attributed to STF: “One of the biggest news trends that we’re seeing is the use of printed PVC that looks and feels like real marble or stone. RV manufacturers still want the look of a heavy quartz or marble top and by using a thicker substrate for the end product, it’s so convincing that most people think it’s stone.”
Synergy’s textured Burlap Oak looks like it was woven from white oak, complete with woodgrain cathedrals. It’s a great match for Arauco Prism’s WF 441 Burlap.
Request a sample. (Be sure to include product name, your name, company name, address and phone number.)
Lumber prices have skyrocketed more than 180% since last spring, and this price spike has caused the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $24,386 since April 17, 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) standard estimates of lumber used to build the average home. Similarly, the market value of the average new multifamily home has increased by $8,998 over the same period due to the surge in lumber prices.
The latest Random Lengths prices as of mid-February show the price of framing lumber topped $975 per thousand board feet — a 180% increase since last April when the price was roughly $350 per thousand board feet.
NAHB calculated these average home price increases based on the softwood lumber that goes into the average new home, as captured in the Builder Practices Survey conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs. Included is any softwood used in structural framing (including beams, joists, headers, rafters and trusses), sheathing, flooring and underlayment, interior wall and ceiling finishing, cabinets, doors, windows, roofing, siding, soffit and fascia, and exterior features such as garages, porches, decks, railing, fences and landscape walls.
The softwood products considered include lumber of various dimensions (including any that may be appearance grade or pressure treated for outdoor use), plywood, OSB, particleboard, fiberboard, shakes and shingles — in short, any of the products sold by U.S. sawmills and tracked on a weekly basis by Random Lengths.
Our Ginger Spicewood brings out oak’s zesty design flavor further enhanced by Authentic texture, the same structure we use with Barnwood and Smokewood.
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts hit1.55 million annualized units in November, up 2.8% from the year before. Meanwhile, sales of newly built, single-family homes in November stood at 841,000 on an annualized rate, 20.8% higher than November 2019.
Economists for a wide variety of organizations see even better days to come for the housing industry in 2021. Here are highlights of some of those rosy forecasts.
National Association of Home Builders: Home builder confidence enters 2021 at near record highs. New home sales growth will likely slow but will remain strong due to a “shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates.” Home builders will continue to face higher costs for materials and contend with an ongoing labor skills shortage. “Remodeling demand should remain strong and expand further.”
Realtor.com: “We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.” Single-family starts are seen increasing 9%.
Redfin: “The housing market will remain strong through 2021 as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven recession.” Among Redfin’s 2021 predictions:
Mortgage rates will rise slowly but remain historically low at 3%;
There will be more home sales than in any year since 2006, but price growth will slow.
More new homes will be built next year than in any year since 2006… Building permits were up 21% from September to November compared to the same time the year before year.
The number of Americans relocating will be the highest it has been in 16 years. In 2021, the number of Americans moving across county lines will surpass 14.5 million, as everyone settles into their post-pandemic ways of living. That will be more than a 25% increase in out-of-town movers from 2018 when 11.4 million Americans moved across county lines.
Zillow: “(We) expect a perfect storm of market conditions to create the hottest spring shopping season in recent memory, with sales happening quickly and often above list price. It’s likely COVID-19 vaccine distribution will be well underway in the U.S. by the spring, and local economies and schools should be in the process of opening back up. Many will also have more certainty about whether their jobs will be performed remotely in the long term, adding buyers to the market who had been waiting for that to be settled. Add in expectations for mortgage rates to rise later in the year, and we could see a buyer frenzy as they look to lock in rates as low as possible.
“2020 has been a remarkably strong year for the housing market, with sales on pace to grow 6% from 2019 despite essentially pressing ‘pause’ for a few weeks in the heart of the spring shopping season. We expect that mark will be shattered next year, forecasting 21.9% annual growth for a total of 6.9 million homes sold. That would be the biggest annual sales growth since 1983.”
In this issue of On the Surface, we say hello to 2021; shine a spotlight on Ginger Spicewood and take sneak a peek at what economists expect will be a very good year for the U.S. housing industry.
Gearing Up for 2021
Dear Colleagues,
2020 was a year that none of us will ever forget. We watched in disbelief as a year that began with great optimism was hijacked by a global pandemic that dramatically altered the way we work and live.
While we are happy to have 2020 in the rearview mirror, we are also grateful to all of you who supported Synergy during the most extraordinary of times. It wasn’t always easy, but we not only survived the worst that the pandemic could throw at us, we’ve emerged stronger than ever. We’re excited to watch the New Year unfold and see what new opportunities avail themselves.
We greatly look forward to continuing to serve you as the most-trusted source of 3D Laminates, 2D Laminates and Foils.
In this issue of On the Surface, we say hello to 2021; shine a spotlight on Ginger Spicewood and take sneak a peek at what economists expect will be a very good year for the U.S. housing industry.
Gearing Up for 2021
Dear Colleagues,
2020 was a year that none of us will ever forget. We watched in disbelief as a year that began with great optimism was hijacked by a global pandemic that dramatically altered the way we work and live.
While we are happy to have 2020 in the rearview mirror, we are also grateful to all of you who supported Synergy during the most extraordinary of times. It wasn’t always easy, but we not only survived the worst that the pandemic could throw at us, we’ve emerged stronger than ever. We’re excited to watch the New Year unfold and see what new opportunities avail themselves.
We greatly look forward to continuing to serve you as the most-trusted source of 3D Laminates, 2D Laminates and Foils.
Thank you and good luck!
Your friends at Synergy Thermal Foils
Product Spotlight: Ginger Spicewood
Our Ginger Spicewood brings out oak’s zesty design flavor further enhanced by Authentic texture, the same structure we use with Barnwood and Smokewood.
Request a sample. (Be sure to include your name, company name, address and phone number.)
Bullish on Housing
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts hit1.55 million annualized units in November, up 2.8% from the year before. Meanwhile, sales of newly built, single-family homes in November stood at 841,000 on an annualized rate, 20.8% higher than November 2019.
Economists for a wide variety of organizations see even better days to come for the housing industry in 2021. Here are highlights of some of those rosy forecasts.
National Association of Home Builders: Home builder confidence enters 2021 at near record highs. New home sales growth will likely slow but will remain strong due to a “shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates.” Home builders will continue to face higher costs for materials and contend with an ongoing labor skills shortage. “Remodeling demand should remain strong and expand further.”
Realtor.com: “We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.” Single-family starts are seen increasing 9%.
Redfin: “The housing market will remain strong through 2021 as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven recession.” Among Redfin’s 2021 predictions:
Mortgage rates will rise slowly but remain historically low at 3%;
There will be more home sales than in any year since 2006, but price growth will slow.
More new homes will be built next year than in any year since 2006… Building permits were up 21% from September to November compared to the same time the year before year.
The number of Americans relocating will be the highest it has been in 16 years. In 2021, the number of Americans moving across county lines will surpass 14.5 million, as everyone settles into their post-pandemic ways of living. That will be more than a 25% increase in out-of-town movers from 2018 when 11.4 million Americans moved across county lines.
Zillow: “(We) expect a perfect storm of market conditions to create the hottest spring shopping season in recent memory, with sales happening quickly and often above list price. It’s likely COVID-19 vaccine distribution will be well underway in the U.S. by the spring, and local economies and schools should be in the process of opening back up. Many will also have more certainty about whether their jobs will be performed remotely in the long term, adding buyers to the market who had been waiting for that to be settled. Add in expectations for mortgage rates to rise later in the year, and we could see a buyer frenzy as they look to lock in rates as low as possible.
“2020 has been a remarkably strong year for the housing market, with sales on pace to grow 6% from 2019 despite essentially pressing ‘pause’ for a few weeks in the heart of the spring shopping season. We expect that mark will be shattered next year, forecasting 21.9% annual growth for a total of 6.9 million homes sold. That would be the biggest annual sales growth since 1983.”
As today’s world moves towards more ecofriendly options thermofoil components are gaining strides in the woodworking industry. The growing popularity of 3DL has encouraged a lavish blend of nature and design that mimic our surroundings. With STF’s latest 3D laminate addition, the Skye truly is the limit.
Skye is just one in the many newest designs that are capturing todays modern trends utilizing our landscapes as inspiration. The white brushed elm design combined with the deep texture emulates nature in the most spectacular fashion. A TFL match can be found with Uniboard (H54).
With nine months still to go in 2021, the Home Buying Institute (HBI) takes a “best guess” at what might be in store for the 2022 real estate market based on its analysis of current trends. They include:
Synergy recently shared perspectives on the booming recreational vehicle market with Surface & Panel magazine. The article, published in S&P’s Q1 2021 edition focused on how the pandemic has fueled increased RV sales and examined key design trends.
Synergy invites you to attend the Closets Expo, co-located with Wood Pro Expo Florida, June 9-10 at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.
The latest Random Lengths prices as of mid-February show the price of framing lumber topped $975 per thousand board feet — a 180% increase since last April when the price was roughly $350 per thousand board feet.
In a year marked by economic fits, the U.S. housing market proved surprisingly resilient in 2020.
